The Predictions module in Long-Term Models is designed to help forecast outcomes and optimise marketing investments while accounting for short-term and long-term effects.
 It enables you to simulate different marketing strategies and predict their impact on business metrics such as sales, profit, or ROI - considering how media impact persists over time.

The Optimise feature supports strategic budget planning through two sub-functions:

• Investment Optimisation - Allocate a defined budget across media drivers to maximise impact for your chosen objective (Total, Direct, or Indirect).
• Target Optimisation - Predict the cost required to meet a defined sales or performance target for your chosen objective.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• 1. Using Investment Optimisation
• 2. Using Target Optimisation
• 3. Reviewing Optimisation Results
  • 3.1 Understanding Your Plan and System - Generated Alternatives
  • 3.2 Reviewing Input and Output
  • 3.3 Sales Forecast Interpretation
  • 3.4 Navigating Through Detailed Visuals
• 4. Saving the Optimisation
  • 4.1 Enter Optimisation Details
  • 4.2 Choose Saving Options
• 5. Activating an Optimisation
  • 5.1 Go to the Activities Section
  • 5.2 Activate the Optimisation
  • 5.3 View Activated Optimisation in MI

1. Using Investment Optimisation

Use this option when you have a fixed budget and wish to maximise effectiveness for your chosen optimisation objective.

Steps:

1. Click the Optimise button on the Predictions module page.
2. Select “Investment Optimisation” from the options.
3. Define the time period for the optimisation (e.g., current month).

Note: You may apply constraints to shorter sub-periods (e.g., a specific week) within the selected period.

4. Select Optimise for Objective from the dropdown:
   • Total (default) - Optimises for total sales impact, which includes:
     • Short-term direct effects
     • Short-term indirect effects
     • Long-term indirect effects (truncated to 90% of the total projected value)
   • Direct - Optimises for short-term direct effects only (impact from media directly driving sales in the same period).
   • Indirect - Optimises for:
     • Short-term indirect effects (sales generated in the same period via halo or cross effects)
     • Long-term indirect effects (sales generated in future periods, truncated to 90% of projected value).

Tip: An info tooltip in the UI provides a quick reminder of these definitions.

5. Enter the total available budget (e.g., €100,000).
6. Add any constraints as needed:
   • Fixed Constraint: Allocate a specific amount to a particular media driver.
     Example: Fix €1,000 for Publisher “Spotify” under Paid Audio.
   • Minimum Constraint: Set a lower spending limit.
     Example: Allocate at least €1,000 for France 1 (Paid TV).
   • Maximum Constraint: Set an upper spending limit.
     Example: Do not exceed €2,000 for France 1 (Paid TV).
7. Click “Add Constraint” - the system validates each constraint before applying it. If a constraint is invalid, an error message appears with details.
8. Optional: Tick the box to receive an email notification once the optimisation completes.
9. Click “Optimise” to start the process.
   • A blinking indicator appears while the optimisation is running.
   • Execution time depends on the complexity of your plan and the selected effect type.
10. Once complete, results will be available in the Predictions module and can be saved in the Activity section.

2. Using Target Optimisation

Use this option when you have a specific performance goal (e.g., 1,000 ticket sales) and want to determine the required budget for your chosen objective.

Steps:

1. From the main Optimise view, select “Target Optimisation”.
2. Choose the time period for the optimisation.
3. Select Optimise for Objective (Total, Direct, or Indirect - as described in Section 1).
4. Set the maximum available budget and define the target metric (e.g., number of ticket sales or desired ROI).
5. Add any applicable constraints as described in Investment Optimisation.
6. Click Optimise to run the calculation.
7. Once complete, results can be viewed in the Predictions module and saved to the Activity section.

Note: All results in long-term models incorporate the persistence of media effects into the future, with long-term indirect effects truncated at 90% for optimisation purposes.

3. Reviewing Optimisation Results

• Optimisations may take longer to load in long-term models due to the additional calculations for indirect and long-term effects.
• You will be notified by email once the results are ready if you enabled notifications.
• Access the optimisation result in the Predictions module by clicking the “Show Unsaved Result” button in the optimisation tile.

3.1 Understanding Your Plan and System - Generated Alternatives

The system presents three plans for comparison:

• Your Plan - The plan you configured, with your chosen objective type (Total, Direct, or Indirect) and applied constraints.
• Your Plan with No Constraints - Your plan excluding media constraints; this shows the best achievable outcome for the selected objective without limitations.
• Suggested Alternative - A plan generated by the system using 90% of your original investment, with the same constraints applied.

3.2 Reviewing Input and Output

1. Click the Input/Output tab to view both the input settings and output metrics.
2. In the Overall Summary, you can compare the following KPIs for all plans:
   • Media Investment
   • Media Generated Sales - broken down into:
     • Short-term direct
     • Short-term indirect
     • Long-term indirect (truncated)
   • Media Generated Profit
   • Cost per Action (CPA)
   • Media Profit ROI (Return on Investment)
3. Colour-coded percentage changes indicate performance relative to your original plan:
   • Green - Improvement
   • Red - Decline
4. You may return to the input stage and adjust parameters at any time.

3.3 Navigating Through Detailed Visuals

1. Use the Widget Panel to adjust the view hierarchy:
   • Media grouping
   • Campaign type
   • Channel
   • Publisher
   • Creative format
2. In long-term models, you can toggle the Impact Split View:
   • Displays short-term direct, short-term indirect and long-term indirect bars.
   • Switch to Combined View to see total impact without breakdown.
3. The visuals update dynamically to display:
   • Investment breakdown by channel (e.g., Paid, Radio, Social)
   • Sales generated per channel and per effect type
   • Profit and ROI distributions across selected hierarchies

4. Saving the Optimisation

1. Each plan (Your Plan, No Constraints, Suggested Alternative) can be saved independently.
2. Scroll to the bottom of the page and click the Save Plan button.

4.1 Enter Optimisation Details

1. Enter a Title for your optimisation (e.g., “Q2 - Indirect Objective - UK”).
2. Optionally add a description to note key assumptions.

4.2 Choose Saving Options

You can save the optimisation in two ways:

• Private Save:
  • Visible only to you
  • For personal use or testing
• Public Save (Shared):
  • Shared with your team
  • Select a shared folder or create a new one for organisation

5. Activating an Optimisation

Activation allows you to track actual performance against the predicted results for your chosen objective in the Media Insights (MI) module.

5.1 Go to the Activities Section

• Navigate to the Activities tab.
• Locate the optimisation you want to activate.

5.2 Activate the Optimisation

• Click the three-dot menu (⋮) on the right-hand side of the activity row.
• Select Activate.
• A confirmation popup appears reminding you that predictions hold only if the plan is executed as recommended.
• Click CONFIRM to proceed.
• The platform will automatically download the Buying Brief as an Excel file containing investment recommendations.

5.3 View Activated Optimisation in MI

5.3.1 Media Performance Graph

• The activated period is highlighted.
• Click to view details.

5.3.2 Media Performance Summary

• Compare actual values vs predicted metrics for the selected objective effect type.
  
• Drill down into specific channels or campaigns.

5.3.3 Media Performance Data Table

• Review Actual vs Predicted values by expanding rows through the media hierarchy.
  
• Sorting, filtering and reordering options are available as in the MI module.

Note: The selected Optimise for Objective setting (Total, Direct, or Indirect) is preserved in saved and activated plans to ensure consistent tracking in performance comparisons.